It turns out that Michigan's February 2012 bar exam results foreshadowed the precipitous drop in the pre-appeal, first-time passage rate of the July bar exam. Cooley crunches the numbers:
Detroit Mercy's first-time rate of 54% was down 11% overall in 2012 and down more than 10% in both February and July 2012, compared to the 2011 figures. 2012 is the lowest rate in the past five years, which averaged 76% and ranged from 65% to 86%. The 2012 results were 22% below the five-year average.
Michigan's first-time rate of 83% was down 10% overall in 2012, down 8% in February, and down 10% in July, compared to the 2011 figures. 2012 is the lowest rate in the past five years, which averaged 94% and ranged from 92% to 95%. The 2012 results were 11% below the five-year average.
Michigan State University's first-time rate of 66% was down 21% overall in 2012, down 19% in February, and down 21% in July, compared to the 2011 figures. 2012 is the lowest rate in the past five years, which averaged 86% and ranged from 80% to 91%. The 2012 results were 20% below the five-year average.
Thomas M. Cooley's first-time rate of 57% was down 25% overall in 2012, down 23% in February, and down 27% in July, compared to the 2011 figures. 2012 is the lowest rate in the past five years, which averaged 80% and ranged from 75% to 85%. The 2012 results were 23% below the five-year average.
Wayne State University's first-time rate of 68% was down 9% overall in 2012, down 21% in February, and down 8% in July, compared to 2011 figures. 2012 is the lowest rate in the past five years, which averaged 86% and ranged from 77% to 92%. The 2012 results were 18% below the five-year average.
The Board of Law Examiners is the only entity that can answer the question, "What happened?" So far, the best explanation seems to be a change to a straight 4/3 ratio for the MBE and essays, without scaling using the standard deviation method for the essays. The State Bar of Michigan's Board of Commissioners has the topic on the agenda for its Board meeting this Friday. A representative of the Board of Law Examiners has agreed to attend. Unlike many other states, the State Bar of Michigan does not have a decision-making role in the state's bar exam testing, but the State Bar can make recommendations to the Supreme Court and the Board of Law Examiners.
