ScotusBlog's Lyle Denniston's reading of the tea leaves from today's argument lines up with the majority of pre-argument predictions -- it all depends on Justice Kennedy:
If the vote had been taken after Solicitor General Donald B. Verrilli, Jr., stepped back from the lectern after the first 56 minutes, and the audience stood up for a mid-argument stretch, the chances were that the most significant feature of the Affordable Care Act would have perished in Kennedy’s concern that it just might alter the fundamental relationship between the American people and their government. But after two arguments by lawyers for the challengers — forceful and creative though they were — at least doubt had set in. and expecting the demise of the mandate seemed decidedly premature.
So the two brilliant lawyers arguing today wound up helping the opposing side? Decide for yourself. Here's the audio. Here's the transcript.
